Over the past two weeks, I’ve visited more than 20 matcha farms and manufacturers across Japan for tasting and sourcing. There’s something quite important I’d like to share with you.
As a Mindful partner and cafe operator, I want you to be the first to know—so you’re ahead of everyone else.
1-Min Summary:
Major tea producers in Japan predict that matcha prices may almost double by July due to a global shortage. Mindful has secured strong partnerships, and no major changes will be made until then.
Over these two weeks, I had the privilege of privately sitting down with six Presidents (that’s what they call CEOs in Japan) of some of Japan’s most respected tea producers. Some are 4th-generation farmers, others own more than 70 hectares of tea fields. They generously shared their insights on what’s about to unfold in the matcha market globally.
What I’m about to share doesn’t just apply to Mindful—it affects the global matcha market. Please keep in mind these findings are based on my sources; there may be exceptions.
🔍 Important Context
Unlike coffee, almost all high-quality matcha comes from one country—Japan. While China and Korea produce matcha, the volume and quality are still developing.
The global matcha boom caught Japanese producers off guard. From the US, Europe, India, and Asia to the Middle East—everyone is now racing to secure matcha from Japan. Even 100+ year-old farms are overwhelmed, with some forced to stop supplying to long-time customers.
May is the most critical harvest. This is when the first flush of young, spring tea leaves (used in all Mindful matcha) are picked. Traditionally late May and June are when new prices are set, after auctions and purchasing are complete.
What I Heard Across Japan
- Yields are way down this year— up to 40% in some areas due to poor weather.
- Stockpiles are gone — Last year’s demand cleared out most of the remaining tencha (pre-milled matcha) from previous years.
(Some producers even age tencha to enhance flavour.) - Prices are surging — Originally, most producers expected a 1.5x price increase. But after May’s purchasing round, it became clear that prices are nearly 2x higher than last year.
🌍 What This Means for All of Us
This isn’t just going to affect us—every cafe, supplier, and matcha drinker worldwide will be impacted.
The good news: The new harvest is done, which is why you’re seeing some matcha brands restocking again now after being out of stock for nearly 6 months.
However, many Japanese matcha producers are continuing to pause their supply or have terminated their supply to overseas brands to focus on serving their core clients only. We’re extremely fortunate to have secured enough matcha and connections to support all Mindful cafe partners during this transition.
The not-so-good news: Matcha prices may double from July onward.
However, this is not set in stone yet—raw material trading is still ongoing. As a Mindful partner, your matcha prices will mostly remain stable until July thanks to our secured supply.
What You Might Need to Do
As of now, most matcha producers in Japan have not finalised their pricing yet. I’d expect to see new pricing by July, until then I don’t recommend raising your matcha prices just yet.
Once the new pricing set in, you may need to increase your matcha price by 50c–$1 to maintain healthy margins.
We recommend pricing your 6oz matcha latte from $6.50. Good quality matcha is easily recognisable. After talking with hundreds of matcha drinkers, we know: with the right matcha and ratio, they’ll keep coming back. When you use Mindful, I can confidently say that you’re already serving one of the best matcha lattes in Perth. Just ask your customers.
We also free matcha training video for baristas who are new to matcha, just let me know if you want access to it.
Will There Be A Matcha Shortage, Again?
While there’s no mention of whether there will be a shortage again this year, my prediction is that matcha will run short again later this year (perhaps in 6-9 months) simply because there’s a decline in harvest and the demand continues to soar. I don’t see a quick fix in this year’s supply when tea bushes take 5-6 years to mature.
However, this is where Mindful comes in. We’ll continue doing what we do best: sourcing the right matcha at the fairest price for you, so you can keep serving matcha your customers love and come back for.
Matcha might be a small part of your menu—but in many cafes, matcha sales have already surpassed coffee. And matcha demand is only going up. New customers will keep walking in to try your matcha latte and decide if they want to come back.
Your matcha program has huge potential, especially since Perth is still catching up to cities like Melbourne and Sydney in specialty matcha.
I’ve seen it first-hand—hundreds of cups sold daily, even in small suburbs. As with any growing market, customers will develop more refined tastes over time and specialty matcha is just beginning. Now is the right time to strengthen the matcha program and become the go-to spot for brunch and matcha.
Finally, my personal take on this
Of course, no one wants to pay more for the same cup of beverage but personally, I think this could be a good reset.
Far too often, I see the wrong matcha being used for the wrong drink. Hand-picked, competition-grade, single-origin, rare cultivar matcha that costs $1.50 per gram is being mixed with milk and syrup (the perfect masking agent), for an iced matcha latte. It’s like using a $20-per-cup competition-level Geisha coffee to make a vanilla caramel iced latte. This is sad to see for farmers but at the same, it is not my place to tell people how they should consume the matcha they pay for.
The matcha market is still young so we all have a lot to learn. Based on my sampling experience, higher grade matcha doesn’t necessarily make a better matcha latte. We need certain bitterness and astringency to cut through the milk and create a full-bodied “matcha taste”. This is why we carefully selected the current matcha blend for Mindful. It is by no means the best matcha, but it is the right matcha for lattes that customers would rave about while leaving a decent profit for cafes.
We’re grateful to be part of this journey with you.
Thanks again for your trust and support. If you’d like to talk more about how this might affect your cafe, I’m just a message away.
Warmly,
Will Chan
Owner of Mindful
